Why Nyquist should win the Preakness

Nyquist’s impressive victory in the Kentucky Derby has horse racing fans talking Triple Crown again a year after American Pharoah’s feat. With questions about his distance capability answered in the Derby and his record still perfect, is Nyquist a lock to win the second leg of the series in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes? Writers Art Wilson and Kevin Modesti debated in an email exchange.

ART: Kevin, you and I have been around this game long enough to know there are no locks. Locks are for suckers. Spectacular Bid was a so-called lock in the 1979 Belmont Stakes. Ditto Big Brown in 2008. We know how those races tued out. These are animals, not machines. They have good days and bad days, just like humans. That being said, I don’t think Nyquist will lose Saturday. He’s beaten his biggest threat, Exaggerator, all four times they’ve squared off. Even Exaggerator’s jockey and trainer, brothers Kent and Keith Desormeaux, aren’t sure their colt can beat Nyquist. No way will I take the 3-5 moing-line price on the Kentucky Derby wier, but I also won’t bet against him. I’m not giving back any of the dough I won in the Derby in an effort to beat him. Only two of his 19 Derby rivals showed up for a rematch at Pimlico. That’s a pretty strong statement.

KEVIN: Art, we both liked Nyquist going into the Kentucky Derby, and that performance only raised his stature. Ruing close to a fast pace, then racing clear in the stretch, he addressed the uncertainty about his distance capability. After eight wins in eight starts, he looks like an athlete who just doesn’t have bad days. But we wouldn’t be horseplayers if we didn’t imagine how he could get beaten in the Preakness, and which of his 10 opponents could be the one to spring the upset at a juicy price. I’ve had a lot of time to ponder this while waiting for my Derby longshot, Outwork, to finish the race. (Oh, Outwork finished 14th? That’s better than it felt.) I’ll be watching Saturday’s race under the assumption the Preakness should unfold differently from the Derby, that there is a scenario in which this compromises Nyquist’s chances, and that there is at least one horse in there who has not yet been proven inferior to Nyquist. But before I elaborate, I have to ask: Am I to take it that you don’t plan to bet on the Preakness? For shame!

ART: Nope, no bets on the Preakness. I’d be all over Nyquist at his Derby odds of 2-1, but I’ll pass at less than even-money. In fact, that’s been my mantra the past two years — bet the Derby heavy via Califoia Chrome and American Pharoah and then sit back and savor my profits while I watched folks try to beat ’em in the Preakness. Same this year. If I was going to try to beat Nyquist, though, I’d try to do it with the Todd Pletcher-trained Stradivari. Yeah, I know Pletcher and his jockey, John Velazquez, have never won a Preakness, but a son of Uncle Mo had never won at a mile and a quarter before the Derby, either. We don’t know yet how good Stradivari is, but we do know he’s won from off the pace, aihilated his opposition by a combined 25 3/4 lengths in his two victories and has the numbers to compete. I’d much rather bet a horse like him, one who in your words hasn’t proven yet he’s inferior to Nyquist, than Exaggerator, who’s had four tries at Nyquist and come up empty each time.

KEVIN: Great minds think alike, or something. Stradivari is the talented newcomer to the Triple Crown trail whom I had in mind. He reminds me of Tonalist, upsetter of Califoia Chrome in the 2014 Belmont Stakes. Now, for anyone other than Nyquist to win the Preakness, a few things might have to happen: First, picture that starting from the No. 3 post position forces jockey Mario Gutierrez to hurry Nyquist to the front of the pack to avoid being boxed in by other speed horses. Second, the presence of six horses who’ve won races in front-ruing style creates a hotter pace battle than we saw in the Derby. Third, that pace takes the steam out of them all — including Nyquist. (That third one really takes some imagination. In his past races, when Nyquist has dueled for the lead, it’s the other speed horses who have cracked.) Fourth, a horse sitting off the pace gets a clean run through or around the pack. I say that if Nyquist is vulnerable on Saturday, he’s more vulnerable to a horse behind him early than a horse in front of him. Whew. Is that enough hypotheticals for one discussion?

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ART: Based on my speed numbers, there are only three horses in this field capable of upsetting Nyquist — Exaggerator, Stradivari and Uncle Lino. But as Santa Anita moing-line maker Jon White pointed out in his XpressBet.com column this week, there have been only three wiers in the past 32 ruings of the Preakness that did not run in the Derby. Generally, if you go looking for new shooters to win the middle leg of the Triple Crown, you’re usually counting your losses afterward. I think there are two horses — Uncle Lino and Abiding Star — who absolutely need the lead to win. Not a good recipe for success Saturday. The other speed horses, in addition to Nyquist, have proven they can win from slightly off the pace. If I was going to wager trifectas and supers, I would bet Nyquist on top, Exaggerator second, and Stradivari, Cherry Wine, Fellowship and Collected undeeath. Cherry Wine and Fellowship are two longshots that should be ruing at the end and could complete the exotics. I think we’re going to see Nyquist and Exaggerator finish 1-2 again, duplicating 2012 when I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister ran 1-2 in the Derby and Preakness.

KEVIN: Exaggerator is interesting. Could the Santa Anita Derby wier have won the Kentucky Derby if he’d been a little closer to the lead early? If all of the early speed in the Preakness sets it up for a horse coming from off the pace, is this his best chance to finally tu the tables on Nyquist? Especially if the forecast of rain in Baltimore is correct? He’s obviously the strongest stretch-ruer. You’re right about Cherry Wine and Fellowship — their best is probably a third- or fourth-place finish. Can Stradivari sit farther back than he has so far? It’s too early in his career to assume he lacks that dimension. By the way, for people watching the race: On fast tracks in recent years, the Preakness leaders have been timed in about 46.8 seconds for the first half-mile and 1:11.3 for the three-quarters (and 1:55.4 for the 1 3/16-mile finish). If the pace is faster than that, it gives closers a tactical edge.

ART: Kevin, I don’t think Exaggerator was going to beat Nyquist in the Derby if they went around again. My lone conce about Nyquist is the quick tuaround. The worst race of his career came in last fall’s FrontRuer Stakes at Santa Anita when he struggled in the stretch and did not look like a horse that wanted to run longer. Trainer Doug O’Neill later attributed the shaky showing to the fact it came only 19 days after his previous race, the Del Mar Futurity, and the experience of racing around two tus for the first time. Is he a colt that wants more time between races? I don’t think it’s going to affect him because he’s older and more experienced, but it is a factor you have to consider. I know you’ll probably play trifectas, supers and super hi-fives Saturday, and good luck with all your wagers. Me? I’m going to relax in front of my big screen and watch the Derby wier come back and take the Preakness for the 11th time in the past 20 years. Get ready for the Triple Crown buzz all over again.

KEVIN: Having kidded you for not plaing to bet on the Preakness, I guess I’m obliged to say how I do plan to play it. The 11-horse Preakness, with seemingly shallow contention, doesn’t look as ripe for a trifecta or superfecta bonanza as 20-horse Derbies often do. So I’ll be pretty restrained in my expectations. My main (and perhaps only) bet will be a straight exacta: Nyquist (3-5 on the moing line) first, Stradivari (8-1) second. That exacta could pay $10 or more for a $1 bet, not bad for a very plausible outcome. It will be fun to see how Nyquist’s trademark adaptability deals with what might be new tactical demands. If he wins and goes to the Belmont Stakes 2 for 2 in the Triple Crown — and 9 for 9 lifetime — then, Art, we’ll have plenty more to talk about in June.

Art Wilson covers horse racing for the Southe Califoia News Group papers. Kevin Modesti is an SCNG editorial writer who used to cover horse racing.

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